Modelling for the evaluation of adaptation strategies for more sustainable pastoral livestock systems in the face of global change: application to two case studies included in official quality sign approaches

Starting date : 01/12/2023. Funding: PRIMA PAS-AGRO-PAS project & INRAE PHASE

In the Mediterranean environment, agro-pastoral livestock systems (APLS) have a strong capacity to exploit a diversity of animal and plant resources that vary in time and space. In a context of climate change, their ability to produce in quantity and quality seems to be eroding, particularly for APLS included in official quality sign (SIQO) approaches that have to produce under the conditions defined by the specifications. However, the diversity that characterizes these systems could be a lever for improving productivity, efficiency and resilience. The aim of my PhD thesis is to understand how diversity within APLS can improve their adaptation to climate change, and whether inclusion in a SIQO approach can constitute opportunities or constraints for this adaptation. Two case studies have been chosen to address these issues: dairy sheep farming systems included in the Roquefort Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) and dairy goat farming systems in the Picodon PDO. During my PhD thesis, I will develop a dynamic individual-based model to represent individual variability within the herd, as well as variability in feed resources (cultivated and spontaneous). According to this variability, the biotechnical performances of the livestock farming system over time and at different levels (animal, herd, farm) will be simulated, under different climate change scenarios and with different combinations of management practices (in terms of feeding, reproduction and renewal). Sensitivity analysis and theoretical exploration will be carried out using this simulator to explore the effects on performances of different levels of variability in animal and feed resources components. At the same time, co-design workshops will be held with farmers and stakeholders, with the support of a postdoc, to discuss the theoretical results obtained and to co-design scenarios of interest for further simulations.